2026 in Focus: Global Experts Predict the Future of CEA

For a protracted time, greenhouse horticulture quietly scaled at some stage in worldwide provide chains. In further contemporary years, a brand contemporary generation of vertical farms, original greenhouse items, and excessive-tech systems captured headlines and venture capital with promises of disruption. The original CEA development surged, then busted and entered the trough of disillusionment — and now the inquire is: what comes next?

To arrangement this moment, I asked leaders from at some stage in the worldwide CEA spectrum — including growers, researchers, technologists, and policy specialists — for their boldest predictions for 2026. Their insights cloak no longer correct where the sector is headed, nonetheless how it’s evolving into one thing more integrated, resilient, and grounded.

🛒 Vertical Farming Joins the Retail Supply Chain

Endre Thesen Harnes, Chief Commercial Officer, Avisomo (Norway)

“2026 will see the foremost enormous-scale integration of vertical farming into retailer provide chains.”

“We’re already seeing indicators of this with partnerships adore Avisomo and Coop Norway, or Schwarz Neighborhood’s joint venture vertical farms. These aren’t aspect initiatives; they’re strategic shifts. Worthy adore how foremost retailers brought coffee roasting in-home in the ’80s and ’90s, I have meals retailers will increasingly operate their very like vertical farms. This permits retailers to capture dealer margins whereas aligning with their very like-stamp ambitions and ESG responsibilities. It’s a transformative mannequin, no longer correct for vertical farming, nonetheless for your entire meals rate chain.”

👷 Knowledgeable Labor as Severe Infrastructure

Dedovic Tanja, Senior Regional Specialist on Labor Mobility, IOM MENA (Egypt)

“All over the Middle East and North Africa, quiz of for educated labor in Controlled Ambiance Agriculture is rising sharply. As native climate pressures intensify, more governments and non-public actors are turning to CEA as segment of their long-time interval meals security recommendations.”

“However technology on my own won’t pressure success. Investors increasingly look educated labor as very valuable infrastructure — extreme for cutting back threat, affirming operational steadiness, and retaining returns. There is an accelerating educated labor gap for CEA in the MENA residing and primarily the most resilient initiatives will doubtless be americans that address personnel development with the identical urgency as capital funding.” Read more about this right here.

🍇 Stable Fruit Vegetation Rob Root in Brazil

Ítalo Moraes Rocha Guedes, DSc, CEA Specialist, Embrapa (Brazil)

“My look relies fully on traits right here in Brazil. Greenhouse horticulture and soilless systems will proceed rising at some stage in all areas, and no longer correct for vegetables or ornamentals.”

“We are already seeing fruit crops adore figs, passionfruit, table grapes, and berries step by step migrate into greenhouses for the interval of hot, rainy months, particularly in southern and central areas. Indecent climate events are turning into too disruptive, and right here is pushing growers to undertake rating cultivation. Nonetheless, excessive energy prices will additionally pressure quiz of for different energy sources and native climate-dazzling tech. Brazil’s transition won’t be pushed by novelty; this would perhaps maybe very successfully be pushed by native climate necessity.”

🌾 CEA Expands in Rising Markets with Genetic Precision

Christine R Gould, Founder & CEO, GIGA Futures (Switzerland/World)

“In 2026, CEA will prolong at some stage in emerging markets as worldwide locations double down on meals sovereignty and security.”

“Essentially the most impactful initiatives will droop a ways past leafy greens. We’ll see controlled environments historic to develop desolate tract-adapted crops, handy and medicinal vegetation, and excessive-rate seedlings that reinforce out of doorways manufacturing. That is no longer always correct about yield; it’s about nutrition, native climate resilience, and regional meals arrangement.” “On the identical time, gene editing and next-gen breeding tools will was extreme enablers, tailoring crops for compact development, faster cycles, and elevated nutrient density indoors. And the neatest initiatives will combine into elevated water and energy ecosystems, the exhaust of circular resource recommendations and in the community adapted technologies to multiply their rate.”

🏙️ Japan’s Plant Factories Was Civic Platforms

Dr. Eri Hayashi, Vice President, Japan Plant Factory Association (JPFA) (Japan)

“In 2026, Japan’s plant factories will transfer past excessive productiveness and into precision phenotype retain watch over, powered by AI, closed-loop systems, and proper-time files.” “These farms are evolving into hybrid platforms, no longer correct for meals manufacturing, nonetheless for healthcare, education, biotech, and city resilience. They’ll combine with cities as resource-self reliant nodes, the exhaust of digital twins to simulate carve development and make contemporary financial rate. In many systems, the line between agriculture, biotech, and public infrastructure is beginning to blur.”

🔧 U.S. Greenhouse Sector Specializes in Retrofits

Gretchen Schimelpfenig, PE, PE, Govt Director, GLASE, Cornell College (USA)

“The U.S. greenhouse industry is heading exact into a steep slowdown in contemporary development. We’re seeing federal policy changes around tariffs and grant funding which have chilled funding, particularly among smaller gamers.” “As a replacement, 2026 often is the yr of retrofits. Growers will focal point on repairing aging infrastructure, phasing in developed lights controls, and the exhaust of sensors and automation tool to sever prices and increase efficiency. The smarter operators are auditing their systems now to uncover savings that don’t require big capex.”

🧱 CEA Returns to Its Industrial Roots

Christopher Higgins, President, Hort Americas (USA)

“Controlled Ambiance Agriculture is, in many systems, returning to where it started. After I entered the industry 30 years ago, it used to be dominated by enormous-scale greenhouses producing staple crops adore tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers. I deem this would perhaps maybe work lend a hand to that and quit that manner for a whereas.” “After a wave of overextension in vertical farming, we’re seeing a return to this consolidated, capital-efficient mannequin—fewer gamers, nonetheless more steadiness. Until there are foremost shifts in policy, person behavior, or market incentives, this structure will persist.”

🌱 Vertical Farming Rises Again—With Simplicity and Focus

Leo Marcelis, Head of Horticulture and Product Physiology, Wageningen College & Be taught (Netherlands)

“Now that the hype has passed and heaps vertical farms have gone bankrupt, the sector is slowly rising again—wiser and more targeted.”

“Costs are mute rather excessive, so the finest opportunities lie in excessive-rate crops where added rate justifies the premium. It’s extreme to preserve systems as easy as that chances are you’ll maybe well perhaps take into consideration and be sure a obvious market exists for what’s being produced. Complexity without quiz of is a needless discontinue. The following segment need to prioritize financial realism and targeted innovation.”

🏭 CEA + Records Centers = The Unique Infrastructure Stack

Derek Smith, Govt Director, Helpful resource Innovation Institute (USA)

“In 2026, we’ll see the foremost announcement of a large, excessive-tech greenhouse cluster in the U.S., colocated with a files center.” “This isn’t correct about saving energy. It’s about designing ecosystems where agriculture and digital infrastructure part energy flows, native climate retain watch over, and water systems. Right here’s the long term of native climate-dazzling planning, and it’s how CEA can scale responsibly and profitably.”

➡️ Register for our upcoming webinar on Records Centers + CEA on January 14.

🧪 Smarter Express, Acknowledging the Past

Dr. Paul Gauthier, CEA Academic and Researcher (Australia/World)

“After five years of turbulence—closures, overpromises, and pivots—I have 2026 will doubtless be a more realistic and alive to yr for CEA.” “Yes, we’ll proceed to admire restructuring among first-generation vertical farms, nonetheless we need to always acknowledge their legacy. They paved the vogue for smarter procure, better nutrient management, and circular systems. In Australia, foremost sources management company Centuria has taken a controlling assign in the industrial greenhouse sector. This ability that, 2026 is poised to be the yr of enlargement in Australia, paving the vogue for more dazzling investments in the worldwide industry.”

“The following wave will doubtless be grounded in lessons learned and constructed for the long-time interval.”

🏜️ Gulf CEA Ambitions Lose Momentum

Giovanni Angiolini, Regional AgTech Consultant (UAE)

“Despite the enormous announcements and long-time interval meals security narratives, 2026 will doubtless see a downscaling of CEA funding in the Gulf residing.” “Several enormous initiatives are facing extreme headwinds: excessive energy consumption, unreliable offtake agreements, water management challenges, and an absence of coordinated stakeholder governance. With out stronger alignment between governments, retailers, merchants, and tech services, capital will dwell cautious—and rightly so.”

🇪🇸 Local climate Stress and the Pause of the Seasonal Reset

Germán Fernández Hidalgo, Agronomist, Book, and Influencer (Almería, Spain)

“In Almería, we’re reaching the limits of gentle greenhouse systems. Thrips parvispinus has was primarily the most disruptive pest in pepper crops and is now adapting to others adore cucumber. Farmers once relied on iciness to suppress pests — nonetheless parvispinus is now spellbinding even near 0°C, hiding deep in plant crowns. The seasonal reset is gone.”

“Local climate trade is intensifying this stress with longer droughts, shorter winters, and more low warmth. Meanwhile, Europe’s tightening regulations are cutting back on hand tools, at the same time as growers compete with worldwide locations running underneath looser principles.”

“In 2026, growers won’t undertake CEA because it’s contemporary — they’ll undertake it because it’s necessary. True climates, tighter biosecurity, and predictable manufacturing will doubtless be very valuable.

🦾 Automation is the Handiest Device Ahead

Dr. Jouke Campen, World Challenge Supervisor, Wageningen College & Be taught (Netherlands)

“As more worldwide locations explore meals security and native climate-resilient manufacturing, CEA will prolong at some stage in more carve kinds. However the bottleneck is labor.”

“Automation and mechanization will doubtless be very valuable. Labor is mute the excellent running stamp, and in many areas it’s increasingly scarce. Whether or no longer it’s robotic-assisted harvesting or AI-powered irrigation, 2026 will doubtless be a tipping point for mechanized solutions going mainstream.”

Robotics and automation study at Wageningen College & Be taught

🫀 CEA Embraces Its Role as Correctly being Infrastructure

Nona Yehia, Co-Founder & CEO, Vertical Harvest Farms (USA)

“CEA will quit defending itself as correct an ag-tech vertical and step absolutely into its characteristic as very valuable civic infrastructure.”

“We’re already seeing meals systems linked to public health outcomes—‘Meals Is Treatment’ programs, personnel inclusion, measurable nutrition. Farms won’t correct be judged on output; they’ll be measured by neighborhood resilience. AI will quietly join the dots between biology, energy, labor, and health outcomes, making the system auditable and faithful. The CEA operators that prolong 2026 will doubtless be americans that act adore stewards, no longer startups.”

🧗 Enlightenment, After the Disillusionment

Sam Bertram, CEO & Co-Founder, OnePointOne (USA)

“We’re eventually mountain climbing the Slope of Enlightenment. The vertical farming hype cycle brought big ache, nonetheless it with out a doubt additionally brought clarity.”

“2026 will doubtless be about demonstrating superior product quality, securing economics upright for venture financing, and staying laser-targeted on geography and carve option. The gentle skin has been shed. The CEA product is simply too solid—handsome, native, nutritious—to be denied its long-time interval assign in the meals system.”

🧭 CEA Will Be Masterplanned from the Begin

Henry Gordon-Smith, CEO, Agritecture (Unique York Metropolis)

“In 2026, Controlled Ambiance Agriculture will evolve past being treated as a retrofit. This can even very successfully be designed from the starting — a core feature of masterplanned traits in assign of an afterthought.”

“Secure files facilities with integrated farms. Stunning cities with modular greenhouse nodes. Regional meals hubs colocated with shatter-to-energy vegetation, and public institutions. However additionally: agritourism inns with on-build manufacturing, free zones for ag-tech innovation, and pudgy contemporary cities constructed with circular meals systems embedded from the ground up.”

“At Agritecture, we’re already working with cities, builders, and institutional potentialities to invent this imaginative and prescient proper — embedding CEA into planning processes both bodily and digitally, and redefining how meals infrastructure is planned, financed, and scaled in the twenty first century.”

🙏 Thank You to Our Contributors

A large thanks to the 18 worldwide experts who joined me to part their insights for this share. Their predictions mirror no longer finest regional realities, nonetheless a shared imaginative and prescient for the vogue CEA can evolve — into one thing more resilient, more integrated, and more impactful in 2026.

🔍 What’s Trending All over the Predictions?

• 🔄 Convergence is right here — Greenhouses and vertical farms are mixing, no longer competing.
• ⚠️ Necessity over novelty — CEA is now a response to native climate, no longer correct a tech bet.
• 👷 Labor = infrastructure — Knowledgeable workers are extreme for steadiness and returns.
• 💡 Smarter spending — Retrofits and integration are changing moonshots.
• 🌍 Local first — Success is reckoning on regional adaptation, no longer replica-paste items.
• 🏙️ Built into cities — CEA is coming into masterplans, no longer correct warehouses.
• 🧾 Coverage friction — Regulation is shaping winners and losers.
• 🫀 Meals as public upright — Correctly being, fairness, and sovereignty are rising KPIs.

💬 Which prediction resonated most with you?

🤝 Let’s Work Together

Whenever you are making a CEA or native climate-dazzling agriculture venture, e book a time with me to explore how Agritecture can reinforce your objectives: 👉 Schedule an Intro Name